Abstract

Abstract A society often needs answers to questions, for example questions about a defendant's guilt. Should a society rely on an individual or a group's judgment? Condorcet's jury theorem states that if a group is polled about some proposition, then, given certain assumptions, the majority's opinion is more responsive to the truth than is an individual's opinion. If a proposition is true, a majority will more likely than an individual judge that it is true. The theorem argues for using a jury rather than a judge to decide whether a defendant is guilty ( see Punishment), and in general argues for using groups rather than individuals to settle social issues, for example questions about provision of public goods ( see Public Goods).

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