Conditional survival probability of patients with resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

Abstract

284 Background: The purpose of this study is to evaluate conditional survival (CS) probabilities for patients with resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PC) amongst patients who have survived ≥1 more year(s) after diagnosis. Methods: Patients with resected PC from 1998-2008 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Database. Data on patient, tumor and treatment characteristics were extracted. Overall survival (OS) rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. A multivariate analysis (MVA) at different time points from survival was performed to determine independent prognostic factors associated with all-cause mortality hazard ratios (HRs) using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: A total of 4,883 patients with resected PC were identified. Fourteen percent of patients had Stage IA/B disease, 23% Stage IIA, 53% Stage IIB, and 2% Stage IIIA, and 6% with unknown stage. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival estimates for patients at diagnosis were 67%, 29%, and 21%, respectively. One, 3- and 5-year survival probabilities conditional upon number of years already survived are shown in table 1. Prognostic factors significantly correlated with improved OS at the time of diagnosis on MVA include: earlier stage, younger age, later year of diagnosis, white race, female gender, and residence in a high income district (p < 0.05). After already surviving 3 years following diagnosis, younger age was the only prognostic factor correlated with improved OS (p<0.05). Conclusions: CS estimates provide additional prognostic information that may be used to counsel PC patients on how their prognosis may change over time. Further research utilizing prospectively-collected data is warranted to help determine recommended follow-up intervals and benchmarks for future clinical trials. [Table: see text]