Conclusion: An Election that Satisfied Few and Solved Little

Abstract

Rarely can a partial election victory have felt so akin to a defeat for a party. As the Conservatives scrambled in the aftermath to clinch an expensive deal with their only friends at Westminster, the Democratic Unionist Party, they ruefully reflected on how their majority had been mislaid. A Prime Minister who had called an unnecessary election had witnessed her Party’s apparently unassailable position at the outset of the contest eroded. The Conservatives’ lead over Labour diminished almost daily; ditto her lead over Jeremy Corbyn. An election without reason, an awful campaign and an uninspiring manifesto combined to provide the hollowest of partial victories. Britain Votes 2015 concluded by arguing that the sunlit uplands apparently offered by the surprise Conservative overall majority were cloudier than might be immediately apparent. It highlighted the dangers of the Brexit referendum as an exercise in internal party management and the continuing problems for the Conservative Party—short on members, young votes and ideas. The 2015 election was won primarily on economic competence; an election which strayed beyond that territory could be more problematic. The 2017 election was not a contest in which fiscal prudence and responsibility dominated to the extent of 2015. By 2017, the Conservatives had abandoned the deficit elimination targets trumpeted in 2015 and the Labour Party could reasonably gamble that another election fought on austerity terms might bore the voters. The 2017 outcome demonstrated that a cautious take on the Conservatives’ 2015 victory was justified. That said, a remotely competent Conservative campaign in 2017 would surely have delivered a reasonable parliamentary majority, given the evidence of council election results only one month earlier. Instead, May’s campaign was beset by difficulties. As Bale and Webb have charted, disagreements over the wisdom of calling the election, a lack of trust between Conservative HQ and grassroots activists, an overly presidential campaign (only a good idea if the leader has something to say), an underestimation of Corbyn the campaigner (perhaps his main asset) and a sharp drop in levels of activism were all evident.