Concerning the informativeness of the methods for predicting prognosis of peritonitis

Abstract

The analysis of literature data on the most common general clinical and specific systems for predicting the outcome of peritonitis was carried out. The informativeness of the methods for predicting the outcome of peritonitis was performed according to the parameters of sensitivity and specificity (Se and Sp). The sum of the proportions of correct forecast results characterizes the accuracy of the method (Ac). We also calculated the predictive value of a positive result (PPV; hereinafter referred to as predictive value), which is the proportion (probability) of unfavorable outcomes among all patients with a high risk of death. The article also demonstrates the assessment of predictive ability using the example of four common scales for predicting the outcome of secondary peritonitis. The results of the study showed that none of the studied systems for predicting the outcome of peritonitis is universal and absolutely reliable. Despite the fact that all the studied systems (scales) are used in clinical practice, none of them can completely satisfy surgeons, primarily in the choice of access, the volume of surgery and the option for its completion.