Conceptualizing demand-side technological and social innovations in modeling pathways to carbon neutrality

Abstract

Achieving mid-century carbon neutrality goals requires drastic energy and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions that can be enabled by transformative demand-side technological and social innovations. These innovations can significantly reduce energy demand and related emissions to achieve global low energy demand (LED) pathways that rely less on uncertain CO2 removal technologies to meet climate targets. Many existing decarbonization pathway studies focus more on supply-side innovations with less attention on LED innovations, and those that do often have limited focus on industry, freight transport, and broader cross-sector strategies. In this perspective, we apply the “avoid-shift-improve” framework to assess the technical potential and deployment feasibility (in terms of adoption, implementation and response) barriers of demand-side innovations. We observed that smart, integrated building systems improve energy performance, with further reductions possible through design, occupant behavior changes, and social interactive programs. Improved design processes, higher quality products, and circular economy strategies can reduce material demand and associated industrial energy use. Shared mobility systems face uncertain net energy impacts, but smart freight and logistics, and aviation to rail shift can be deployed quickly. Sustainable food, fashion and lifestyle changes are needed beyond technological transformations. Our work illuminates potential impacts and factors that affect realization of the technical potential of individual LED innovations to support their inclusion in future global and national LED scenarios and climate policy development. Additional research is needed to ensure successful integration of LED innovations into a broader mix of climate actions to provide greater flexibility, speed, and lower costs for decarbonization.