Conceptualizing and Measuring Energy Security: Geopolitical Dimensions, Data Availability, Quantitative and Qualitative Methods

Abstract

Energy is an important geopolitical driver, and energy security is an emerging field with growing interest in its measurement. This Chapter is a guide to energy security research that aims to estimate a quantitative energy security index with a geopolitical focus, by providing an in-depth dynamic geopolitical look into the history, evolution, dimensions, data, estimation, taxonomy, and forecasts of energy security. Discussion is complemented with examples from the area of the Southeastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. The Chapter commences with documenting the state of the art of the research literature on energy security. In particular, the definitions, the dimensions, the associated geopolitical issues, the policies, and the quantitative simple indicators and complex indexes of energy security are examined. An alternative to a full panel data approach for research that aims to calculate a quantitative energy security index would be to focus on specific milestone time periods such as the first oil crisis of the 1970s, the first Gulf War of 1990–91, the Russian-Ukrainian disputes (2005–09), and the present time. The Chapter discusses how empirical geographical, energy, socioeconomic, environmental and geopolitical data could be collected, and a novel geopolitical energy security index could be developed with reference to appropriate statistical techniques. A Cluster Analysis of the data and security index values of each milestone time period could provide a dynamic taxonomy of countries, based on their energy security profile, which could be depicted on geopolitical maps. Of particular interest would be to see how countries shifted from one cluster to another over time. Following Cluster Analysis, it is suggested that a case study analysis of the energy security profile of key countries (such as Germany, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Canada, Venezuela, China, India, and Japan) could complement the quantitative approach, and provide an in-depth appreciation of countries, the energy security issues they face, the policies they adopt to address them, and how well the obtained clustering and energy security values capture this knowledge. It is also proposed that any energy security index research include a small number of interviews with energy experts from the government, the academia, and the professional arena. It is advised that these interviews include open-ended questions on the concept of energy security, its evolution through the milestone time periods, the energy security index, the clusters, the geopolitical maps, and energy security policies. Finally, it is proposed that any energy security index research be complemented with forecasts that take into account socioeconomic and geopolitical data, the energy security index values, the dynamic taxonomy, as well as information gleaned from the interviews.