Conceptual principles of forecasting demand on the day-ahead market using changes in hourly bidded demand between previous similar days

Abstract

On the basis of the Law on the Electricity Market adopted in 2017, the retail electricity market in Ukraine opened on January 1, 2019, and later, on July 1, 2019, the wholesale electricity market was launched. The day-ahead market (DAM) is one of the key segments of the Ukrainian electricity market. In order to implement trading strategy and successfully conduct business, to maximize the economic results in the specified market segment, it is important to understand the market situation and the structure of demand and supply. One of the indicators that must be taken into account when planning sales in the course of one’s activity is the demand for electrical energy. Currently, there are no universal algorithms in Ukraine suitable for short-term (per day) forecasting of the amount of electrical energy that will be traded on DAM. Therefore, to solve such a problem, a specialized forecasting algorithm is proposed. The basis of the developed algorithm is the possibility of considering the formulated problem in a parametric form, where, as indicators, the forecast and real data of the hourly demand on the DAM are used. At the same time, in order to find the forecast hourly demand on the market “a day ahead” – the values of the unknown indicators of the problem – an iterative method of their search is used based on statistical data of the amount of electricity purchases on the DAM, using the principle of multi-iteration analysis of changes in demand for previous similar days. The proposed algorithm is implemented in the MS Excel package, which indicates its versatility and ease of use. The high speed of obtaining a solution to the formulated problem is shown.