Conceptual Model of Predictive Safety Management Methodology in Aviation

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Due to the continuous growth of air traffic and the development of aviation systems, the current safety management methodologies should be improved and upgraded. Safety management systems help aviation organizations to manage, maintain and increase safety efficiently. The focus of the research is on the development of the predictive safety management methodology to upgrade current reactive and proactive safety management methodologies and to improve the overall safety level in aviation organizations. Predictive methods are used in various aviation sectors (air navigation services, airport operations, airline operations) for planning purposes but not in the segment of safety management. Available examples of predictive methods were tested and analyzed. Time series decomposition methods were selected as most suited for implementation in aviation safety management. The paper explicitly emphasizes correlations between safety management methodologies in the sample aviation organization. The paper also shows how causal links among organizational and safety performance indicators can be detected, by developing causal models of mutual influences using causal modeling methods, on the sample organization. This research defined steps and tools of the conceptual model of predictive safety management methodology, which enables an organization to identify and mitigate future adverse events.