Conceptual Model for Understanding the Impacts of COVID-19 Pandemic on Jakarta Mid-term Development Goals Using System Dynamics Approach

Abstract

The vast impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have consequences for populous service cities, like Jakarta, in maintaining economic and social development. Despite several countermeasures to limit the impacts that have been rolled out, understanding of the overall effects remains limited as some of the strategies taken are counterproductively affecting economic growth and resulting in loss of jobs. This paper aims to explore a dynamic interrelationship between the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Jakarta's city structure using the qualitative causal-loop approach of systems dynamics modeling. The conceptual model takes productivity, capital, and consumption rate as input variables towards endogenous process structures that represent the scope of the city system under study. The model uses two macroeconomic indicators as model output, namely gross regional domestic product (GRDP) and unemployment rate. Travel restrictions, social distancing, and direct cash transfer are policies under evaluation that is expected to leverage endogenous developed structure and improve the output indicators. The model result presents a causal-loop diagram that consists of five modules: Gross Regional Domestic Product, Government Expenditure, Producer Transaction, Labor Force, and Household Consumption. The interactions obtained from these interrelationship highlights key leverage points for decision-maker for further policy development in offsetting productivity loss due to pandemic and short-term efforts needed to ensure Jakarta is still on the path of achieving mid-term development plan goals in 2022.