Conceptual approaches to the formation and realization of Russian economic strategy: Current and long-term challenges

Abstract

The development of Russia's economic strategy due to the balance of current and long-term challenges, when current ones must be subordinated to established long-term tasks is discussed in the study. The strategy content is often replaced solely by current tasks, the way the macroeconomic policy should be arranged, whether privatization should be carried out, monetization should be increased at the expense of target emissions, and to what extent inflation should be suppressed. These issues being significantly important in the current regime, nevertheless, do not give a strategic vision of what the economic system should become. The current policy instruments that are collectively referred to as strategic programs are broadly discussed. At the same time, the main reasons why the economy is in such a condition have not been analyzed yet. Another issue concerning the failure of the previous programs which have been earlier discussed has not been settled yet. The root of the problems is in the organization of the economy, its structural features and the already introduced new system of basic institutions, and the permanent correction of these institutions does not work for the benefit, even hinders economic development, as it forces agents to relentlessly modify adaptation models. The content of the development strategy must include the essence and ways of changing the economic structure so that this change reproduces new factors of its growth. Otherwise, economic growth will be based on the previous factor model, which the growth of 2017 demonstrates. The specifics of Russia's technological development have already been revealed under the new modernization priorities, the need for a radical change in the methods of the current macroeconomic policy for monetary and budgetary direction has been shown. A methodological framework for the formation of a strategic program that is useful for the work of the analytical services of the Russian government has been considered. The management of structural changes requires the organization of a model of intersectoral mobility of resources that takes into account the task of new markets formation and priority areas of technological development. The mobility will bring additional resources for industrial economic growth as excess resources (capital and labor) are concentrated in transactional and resource sectors. Thereby the strategy of Russia’s economy development requires measures that influence the proportion changes among sectors. This interaction is provided by changing of risks in economic activity in economic sectors and differentiations in monetary policy, in particular interest rates as a key tool of the policy. We suggest correcting a model of transmission mechanism of a macroeconomic policy that is considered to be a tactical method to solve strategic tasks of development. A systematic increase in the monetization of the economy and a differentiated percentage of investment projects by sectors are the main prerequisites for a new model of macroeconomic growth policy in Russia, where structural policy becomes the main element. Keywords economic strategy, macroeconomic policy, inflation, investments, technologies, economic growth. Acknowledgements The article was prepared in the framework and with the financial support of the grant (project) of the Russian Scientific Fond entitled “Investigation of opportunities of the long-term high-tech development of economy in terms of global technological shifts and crises” (the supervisor is academician of the RAS S.Yu. Glaz’ev).