Abstract
Two methodologies to rank exploitation scenarios for hydrocarbon fields during screening and concept selection stages are described and compared. First a selection based on net present value valuation is introduced and an explanation on its limitations for field planning are given thus, a second selection based on a multiattribute decision model where other technical factors not directly associated to economics such as operability and reliability are considered. A comparison of net present value and the multiattribute decision model on a concept selection study case shows differences on the scenario selection for exploitation. Sources of the different outcomes between the two methodologies are identified. A stochastic analysis for the multiattribute decision model is performed to have a complete view of the possible outcomes since the factors in the multiattribute decision model are measured qualitatively and their values can vary depending on experts’ knowledge and experience. Recommendations obtained from the methodologies studied for screening and concept selection are given.
Highlights
For the exploitation of a hydrocarbon field the process of identifying the concepts technically feasible and associated to the best economical performance is called field development planning process
Oil and gas exploration and exploitation require a large amount of economical resources mainly in offshore environments field development planning has the main objective of maximizing the revenue for a given investment, this is maximizing the utility index (UI) defined as UI = NPV/NPI, where NPV is the net present value and NPI is the net present investment value
It is worth to mention that even with the cost dispersion present in these initial stages of the project, the influence to increase the project value by making the right concept selection is highly relevant for the remainder of the project life, see Figure 6 where it is graphically showed the process were various technical feasible exploitation concepts are considered during the Planning stage and through a Front End Loading (FEL) process a final concept is selected which is extensively studied during the Define stage and a Front End Engineering Design (FEED) is produced for bidding purposes before the project is sanctioned for execution and expenditures rise considerably onwards
Summary
For the exploitation of a hydrocarbon field the process of identifying the concepts technically feasible and associated to the best economical performance is called field development planning process. It is convenient to identify all the feasible concepts to exploit a field, especially for undeveloped fields, to assure that any possible concepts that provide value is not discarded This process is usually performed in a workshop where personnel representing the technical specialties involved participate defining the information available, the objectives of the project and the strategy to reach the objectives, as a result of this workshop a field development concepts matrix is obtained. The objective is finding the number of wells that maximizes NPV and UI simultaneously for a given development option, this leads to find the number of wells that generates the maximum economical value with the best investment efficiency since production versus number of wells is governed by reservoir characteristics
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