Concept of threat model in systems warning of organizations

Abstract

Warning systems in organizations standing before the requirement of efficiency and re¬liability of the issuing of warnings, they must have sufficient theoretical and methodological reso¬urces to carry out their tasks. Used until now the theoretical resources and methods, have based mainly on the theory and methodology of risk, which is based on data resources on the repeatabi¬lity of monitored events. Their effectiveness is significantly reduced in the so-called nondetermini¬stic situations. The limitation in the implementation of these tasks may be lack of consistency and incomplete interpretation of basic concepts in this area. One such concept is the threat. The aim of the article is to present a concept of universal approach to interpretation of the concept of threat, allowing for more effective perception of warning signals, and to develop a more effective metho¬dology for their reading and recognition. This work uses the following scientific methods: analysis and criticism of literature, analysis and logical construction, as well as the heuristic methods: “new look” method and the analogue transfer method. Most of the analyzes were based on the results of own research obtained during the financial crisis in 2008-2010 and on the basis of research among members of the dispositional groups. The work resulted in the concept of threat model, providing division into causal and consequential threats, as well as partial models: the model of threat deve¬lopment and the model of perception of consequential threats.