Abstract
The paper advocates a new concept for risk control that makes up one organic closed loop feedback system, with the following stages: 1) the evaluation of the positive and negative features of situation under investigation through strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis, 2) the determination of the level of fuzzy risk concealed in this situation (using RISK evaluation), and 3) the proposal of leverage, recommendations, or actions (through LEVERAGE aggregation) enabling the improvement of target performance. Useful fundamental approaches, definitions, and particularities of this concept concerning SWOT, RISK and LEVERAGES are examined, and for the first time the network type called here the fuzzy SWOT map (FSM) is introduced. This newly proposed instrument appeared as a result of a natural extension of fuzzy cognitive maps paradigm enhanced by dynamic computing with words (CWW) elements and possibilities to use the explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) in the form of fuzzy inference rules. The concept serves for development of functional organization of control systems of complex and dynamically interacting projects or situations and for implementation of adequate set of tools satisfying the concrete system’s requirements. The results of conceptual modeling and the confirmation of the vitality of the approach are presented based on the simplified example of a risk-control system case covering three interacting projects in a complex environment of city development.
Highlights
There are two main complementary scientific tendencies present in our everyday lives
As stated in Introduction, this paper advocates a new concept that combines in one organic closed loop feedback system evaluation of the positive and negative features of a situation under investigation, the determination of the level of fuzzy risk concealed in this situation, and the proposal of leverage / recommendations / actions that would enable the improvement of the given situation’s performance
We have proposed an entirely novel concept that combines three levels of tools devoted for dynamic SWOT analysis and fuzzy control of risk in complex environments into one organic, closed-loop feedback system
Summary
There are two main complementary scientific tendencies present in our everyday lives. Under the influence of contemporary dynamic and structural changes in the space and time dimensions of environments and processes under investigation, adequate (flexible, rapid, and hierarchically interconnected) SWOT analysis tools are required that are able to focus on more than one moment in time in the life of an organization or system Another significant drawback in the classical methodology of SWOT analysis can be found in the form of the input information and its interpretation: expert teams usually use a mixture of quantitative (numerical) information and qualitative (verbal) description of situations under investigation as their inputs, and they extract and deliver qualitative interpretations in their recommendation for action to be taken to address a given situation.
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