Abstract
The study is dedicated to the problem of uncertainty in the analysis of accident situations in road traffic. The term “uncertainty” is generally known when used with reference to measurement techniques, but its application to the analyses of accident situations in road traffic, including accident reconstruction, is a relatively new field of knowledge. The objectives of this work include the presentation and examination of selected aspects related to the taking of uncertainty into account when analysing the course of an accident and making the necessary calculations. Apart from the scientific objectives, an important utilitarian goal may also be pointed out. The data and methods presented may be used by automotive technology experts in their accident reconstruction work. The paper shows seven methods that enable the taking into account of the uncertainty of the data used for calculations, i.e. extreme values method, total differential method, higher-order total differential method, finite-difference method, Gauss method, method based on the description of stochastic processes, and Monte-Carlo method. Apart from formal (mathematical) descriptions of the methods, an example of their use for the estimation of uncertainty of selected quantities that describe an accident situation has been demonstrated. The bad and good points of individual methods have been shown in the context of the application considered.
Highlights
1.1 Purposes of Analysing Road AccidentsWhen road accidents and collisions are examined, they may be either treated as a mass phenomenon or analysed individually
It may be assumed that the uncertainty of calculation results obtained during an analysis of a road accident will be a parameter describing the possible dispersion of values of the quantity determined by the calculations
Limiting ourselves to the part related to purely computational problems, we may present this in the form of a simple diagram (Fig. 1): the expert has a set of data describing the accident under analysis (Data), runs calculations with using a method that is available or chosen in consideration of the nature of the incident and the actual purpose of the analysis (Tools), and obtains a specific result (Results)
Summary
When road accidents and collisions are examined, they may be either treated as a mass phenomenon or analysed individually. The forensic expert who prepares the opinion, using his/her knowledge and the trace evidence collected at the incident site (including the results of post-incident measurements), making definite assumptions regarding the values of the parameters that describe the incident, and using the methods available to him/her, carries out a series of operations in the form of calculations and inferences in order to determine the quantities that are important for identifying the accident reasons. Such quantities may describe the pre-incident behaviour of the participants, the motion of the vehicle or vehicles involved, or other important circumstances.
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