COMPUTING COMPETENCIES VALUE THROUGH A FUZZY REAL OPTION MODEL

Abstract

This paper presents a fuzzy real option model for the estimation of the value of an investment in individual compe-tencies. The use of the real option technique is justified on the basis of the following hypotheses: i) either deve-loping or acquiring a competency is a financial investment; ii) the value of such an investment can be estimated by assuming that the decision made by a firm either to develop or acquire an individual competency can be consi-dered as buying an option today that will allow the firm itself to exploit a market opportunity in the future by implementing a new productive process Pj; iii) the uncertainty concerning the future value of an investment can be evaluated through a fuzzy model for the estimation of the volatility of the investment itself. Traditional models proposed in literature for the estimation of the volatility are unable to cope with the lack of historical and reliable data that are usually available in financial investments. Second, those models can manage only uncertainty of probabilistic nature. The model proposed attempts to estimate the volatility of an invest-ment when the uncertainty come from possibilistic sources and data are given by imprecise estimations given by human experts assessing the benefits deriving form the implementation of new productive processes.