Computing Antebellum Turnout: Methods and Models

Abstract

Computing Antebellum Turnout: Methods and Models One of the constants of American political history is that voters turned out in astounding numbers for elections in the nineteenth century. The decline from this high level of turnout is commonly treated as one of the significant electoral developments of the twentieth century, one bespeaking a fundamental transformation in attitudes toward parties and politics. However, a close review of the antebellum turnout evidence suggests that this transformation may not have been quite the event it seems. Among other disturbing factors, one finds: (I) that standard historical sources often diverge widely in their turnout estimates; (2) that most turnout calculations rely on unreasonable assumptions which inflate their results; (3) that, irrespective of one's assumptions, there are massive fluctuations in antebellum turnout, which contradict the notion that most voters were consistent in their