Computer‐Aided Project Duration Forecasting Subjected to the Impact of Rain

Abstract

Rain is a significant climate factor for project duration control. This study presents an analytical model for project duration forecasting subjected to the impact of rain. Also developed herein is the concept of “level of rain” to analyze the direct and subsequent productivity losess based on various amounts of precipitation. Based on the analytical model, a computer‐aided project duration forecasting system subjected to the impact of rain is developed. The proposed system incorporates historical precipitation records, expert experiences, and fuzzy‐set techniques in duration forecasting. Moreover, the proposed system's effectiveness is demonstrated by a highway construction project. The system proposed herein can provide more realistic duration forecasting for project managers while considering the impact of rain.