Computer simulation of the scatter in steel member strength

Abstract

A Monte Carlo method for digital computer simulation of the strength of (steel) members and structures is presented and is applied to rolled steel beams and columns, and thin-walled cylinders. Input data are cumulative distribution functions (histograms) for the geometric and strength variables. The output (i.e. the scatter in structural strength) is printed as histograms and is statistically analysed.Each output histogram is compared with the Gaussian normal distribution. Using the nonparametric test of homogeneity a number of histograms may then be compared.The case studies presented deal with the plastic strength of steel beams and the maximum load of axially loaded steel columns and thin-walled cylinders. Mathematical models for beams subject to pure bending moment, moment and axial force, moment and shear, or uniform torsion are presented. For the initially straight, centrally loaded column a tangent modulus theory which considers residual stresses is used.The simulations have been carried out for one HEA beam, four HEB beams and three IPE beams. Comparison of the simulation results show that the scatter in load carrying capacity of the simulated beams and columns can be regarded as normally distributed, that the load carrying capacity of beams and columns of the same group (HEB or IPE) and beams and columns of the groups HEA and HEB have distributions which differ very little from each other, and that the scatter in simulated beam strength, and in simulated column strength for short and medium length columns, is much more affected by the variation in yield strength of the material than by the variation in cross sectional data. This conclusion holds for ordinary distributions in yield strength of structural carbon steel.Comparisons of simulation results and test results show good agreement for the beams. The agreement is not so good for the columns mainly because in the tangent modulus theory it is assumed that the columns are initially straight. For the cylinders excellent agreement was achieved.The experience gained with the simulation system presented here shows that a medium size computer can be economically used to simulate a relatively large number of plays.