Computer simulation of mosquito populations (Anopheles albimanus) for comparing the effectiveness of control technologies.

Abstract

A deterministic simulation model for mosquitoes based on a life history analysis was developed. Average daily survival values for the adult and immature stages based on data collected in the field were used as the primary factors affecting population growth rates and density over time. Changes in survival were considered to be the net result of all environmental changes on population dynamics when temperature was not a major factor. The development times for immature stages and the pattern of mating, biting, and oviposition remained constant. A subroutine was included that could be used to determine the number of mosquitoes present in the population each day that were capable of transmitting malaria. Simulations were conducted for comparison of the effect cf both contact insecticides and sterile male releases, used alone and in combination, for a population representative of an area in El Salvador. With this approach to modeling, it is possible to simulate populations as they occur naturally and when subjected to control.