Abstract

Introduction: We sought to develop and test a computer-based, interactive simulation of a hypothetical pandemic influenza outbreak. Fidelity was enhanced with integrated video and branching decision trees, built upon the 2007 federal planning assumptions. We conducted a before-and-after study of the simulation effectiveness to assess the simulations' ability to assess participants' beliefs regarding their own hospitals' mass casualty incident preparedness.Methods: Development: Using a Delphi process, we finalized a simulation that serves up a minimum of over 50 key decisions to 6 role-players on networked laptops in a conference area. The simulation played out an 8-week scenario, beginning with pre-incident decisions. Testing: Role-players and trainees (N=155) were facilitated to make decisions during the pandemic. Because decision responses vary, the simulation plays out differently, and a casualty counter quantifies hypothetical losses. The facilitator reviews and critiques key factors for casualty control, including effective communications, working with external organizations, development of internal policies and procedures, maintaining supplies and services, technical infrastructure support, public relations and training. Pre- and post-survey data were compared on trainees.Results: Post-simulation trainees indicated a greater likelihood of needing to improve their organization in terms of communications, mass casualty incident planning, public information and training. Participants also recognized which key factors required immediate attention at their own home facilities.Conclusion: The use of a computer-simulation was effective in providing a facilitated environment for determining the perception of preparedness, evaluating general preparedness concepts and introduced participants to critical decisions involved in handling a regional pandemic influenza surge.

Highlights

  • We sought to develop and test a computer-based, interactive simulation of a hypothetical pandemic influenza outbreak

  • The use of a computer-simulation was effective in providing a facilitated environment for determining the perception of preparedness, evaluating general preparedness concepts and introduced participants to critical decisions involved in handling a regional pandemic influenza surge. [West J Emerg Med. 2013;14(3):236–242.]

  • We used a Delphi-method, or structured communication technique with content and regional experts and using the federal assumptions of the 2007 National Incident Management System (NIMS) for a pandemic outbreak, to derive key categories and decisions to build into the computer programming

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Summary

Introduction

We sought to develop and test a computer-based, interactive simulation of a hypothetical pandemic influenza outbreak. Three, occurring in the last century, varied in lethality from 1 million deaths worldwide in 1968 to 50 million deaths worldwide in 1918.1 The Influenza A virus (H5N1), or Avian influenza, and H1N1, or Swine Flu, have been of more recent concern. First identified in Hong Kong in 1997, the outbreak of the H5N1 flu strain resulted in 18 infections and 6 deaths.[2] Since its original mutation, the H5N1 avian flu virus has spread to over 15 countries, infecting 552 people and killing 322 as of April 2011, a mortality rate of approximately 58%.3. If the H5N1 strain had mutated and developed the ability to transfer via human contact, the world could have been on the brink of a pandemic.[4] More currently, the H1N1 virus was declared a pandemic in 2009

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