Computer Dynamic Forecast Model with Adaptability through the Method of Rank-Sum Ratio

Abstract

At present, global political and economic relations are very tense. After the occurrence of major political, economic and financial shocks, it will have a significant impact on the employment of all countries. Our goal is to analyze the impact of the trade war on China's imports and exports and on employment rate in the United States. Firstly, according to sino-us trade countermeasures and referring to SitcRev2, the goods were classified according to the added value of technology. Then, the coefficient of variation method was used to obtain the weight value. Secondly, the rank-sum ratio comprehensive evaluation method is used in to evaluate and rank the imports and exports of China and the United States from 2007 to 2018. Based on the above analysis and the factors affecting the employment rate, we establish a employment rate economic model. Through the collected data, VAR stationarity test and Granger causality test are conducted on the model. Finally, the specific impact of the trade war on the US employment rate is obtained through impulse response and variance decomposition.