Computer-aided design of improved warning systems – a case study for Botrytis control in flower bulbs

Abstract

Development and improvement of warning systems are often done empirically, relying on extensive field testing. As this approach is both costly and time-consuming, there is a need for a more rational and efficient alternative. In a study to explore the options for improvement of a Botrytis warning system in flower bulbs, we applied a computer-based approach to systems design. The approach consisted of the construction and evaluation of modified versions of the warning system using epidemiological knowledge, data sets of recorded and forecast weather and a simulation model of epidemic development and fungicide spray impact. Performance of modified versions was evaluated with regard to fungicide input, efficacy of disease control and sensitivity to the prediction error in weather forecasts. This approach can be more efficient than a purely empirical one, as it enables the designer to limit the number of alternative versions to be field-tested on the basis of explicit performance criteria. It also has the advantage that it provides insight into the potentials for improvement of the warning system.