Computed tomography screening for lung cancer in Hodgkin's lymphoma survivors: decision analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis

Abstract

Hodgkin's lymphoma patients have an elevated risk of developing lung cancer and may be targeted for lung cancer screening. We used a decision-analytic model to estimate the potential clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of computed tomography (CT) screening for lung cancer in Hodgkin's lymphoma survivors. We developed a Markov decision-analytic model to compare annual low-dose CT screening versus no screening in a hypothetical cohort of patients diagnosed with stage IA-IIB Hodgkin's lymphoma at age 25, with screening starting 5 years after initial diagnosis. We derived model parameters from published studies and the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, and assumed that stage-shift produces a survival benefit. Annual CT screening increased survival by 0.64 years for smokers and 0.16 years for non-smokers. The corresponding benefits in quality-adjusted survival were 0.58 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for smokers and 0.14 QALYs for non-smokers. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for annual CT screening compared with no screening were $34 100/QALY for smokers and $125 400/QALY for non-smokers. Our analysis suggests that if early promising results for lung cancer screening hold, CT screening for lung cancer may increase survival and quality-adjusted survival among Hodgkin's lymphoma survivors, with a benefit and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for smokers comparable to that of other recommended cancer screening strategies.