Computationally Efficient Off-Line Joint Change Point Detection in Multiple Time Series

Abstract

In this paper, a computationally efficient algorithm for Bayesian joint change point detection (CPD) in multiple time series is presented. The data generation model includes a number of change configurations (CC), each affecting a unique subset of the time series, which introduces correlation between the positions of change points (CPs) in the monitored time series. The inference objective is to identify joint changes and the associated CC. The algorithm consists of two stages: First, a univariate CPD algorithm is applied separately to each of the involved time series. The outcomes of this step are maximum <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">a posteriori</i> (MAP) detected CPs and posterior distributions of CPs conditioned on the MAP CPs. These outcomes are used in combination to approximate the posterior for the CCs. In the second algorithm stage, dynamic programming is used to find the maxima of this approximate CC posterior. The algorithm is applied to synthetic data, and it is shown to be both significantly faster and more accurate compared to a previously proposed algorithm designed to solve similar problems. Also, the initial algorithm is extended with steps from the maximization–maximization algorithm, which allows the hyperparameters of the data generation model to be estimated jointly with the CCs, and we show that these estimates coincide with estimates obtained from a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm.