Computational Modelling of the Nigeria’s Daily Crude Oil Prices During the Russia – Ukraine War.

Abstract

The study on the computational modelling of Nigeria’s crude oil prices during the Russia – Ukraine war was conducted to determine and select an appropriate model that best describes the functional behaviour of crude oil prices in Nigeria during the Russia – Ukraine war. The research data was the daily price of crude oil prices and the time under review collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria website, and spanned the period from February 24, 2022, to June 13, 2023. The total observations summed up to three hundred and eighteen days (318). Six models were estimated for the study namely; linear, quadratic, cubic, log-linear, linear-log, and log-log models. Nevertheless, the Log-linear Model, which had the values (S= 0.045; R2 = 67.6%; F = 660.29; p=.000), and the smallest accuracy measures (MAE = 0.030; MSE = 0.002; MAPE = 0.034), is adjudged as the best-fit model among the six built regression models. As a result, the Log-linear estimation has the most impact on the crude oil prices of Nigeria during the period of the Russia –Ukraine war under review. The study hereby recommends forecasting crude oil prices using the log-linear model.