Computational Modelling for Bankruptcy Prediction: Semantic Data Analysis Integrating Graph Database and Financial Ontology

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a novel intelligent methodology to construct a Bankruptcy Prediction Computation Model, which is aimed to execute a company's financial status analysis accurately. Based on the semantic data analysis and management, our methodology considers Semantic Database System as the core of the system. It comprises three layers: an Ontology of Bankruptcy Prediction, Semantic Search Engine, and a Semantic Analysis Graph Database system. The Ontological layer defines the basic concepts of the financial risk management as well as the objects that serve as sources of knowledge for predicting a company's bankruptcy. The Graph Database layer utilises a powerful semantic data technology, which serves as a semantic data repository for our model. The article provides a detailed description of the construction of the Ontology and its informal conceptual representation. We also present a working prototype of the Graph Database system, constructed using the Neo4j application, and show the connection between well-known financial ratios. We argue that this methodology which utilises state of the art semantic data management mechanisms enables data processing and relevant computations in a more efficient way than approaches using the traditional relational database. These give us solid grounds to build a system that is capable of tackling the data of any complexity level.