Computational method for approximating the behaviour of a triopoly: an application to the mobile telecommunications sector in Greece

Abstract

Computational biology models of the Volterra-Lotka family, known as competing species models, are used for modelling a triopoly market, with application to the mobile telecommunications in Greece. Using a data sample for 1999-2016, parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares is performed. The findings show that the proportional change in the market share of the two largest companies, Cosmote and Vodafone, depends negatively on the market share of each other. Further, the market share of the marker leader, Cosmote, depends positively on the market share of the smallest company, Wind. The proportional change in the market share of Wind, depends negatively on the market share of the largest company Cosmote but it depends positively by the change in the market share by the second company, Vodafone. In the long-run it was found that the market shares tend to the stable equilibrium point where all three companies will survive with Cosmote having a projected number after eleven years (in 2030) of approximately 7.3 million subscribers, Vodafone 4.9 and Wind 3.7, the total number of projected market size being approximately 16 million customers.