Computational Investigation of Hand Foot Mouth Disease Dynamics with Fuzziness

Abstract

The first major outbreak of the severely complicated hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), primarily caused by enterovirus 71, was reported in Taiwan in 1998. HFMD surveillance is needed to assess the spread of HFMD. The parameters we use in mathematical models are usually classical mathematical parameters, called crisp parameters, which are taken for granted. But any biological or physical phenomenon is best explained by uncertainty. To represent a realistic situation in any mathematical model, fuzzy parameters can be very useful. Many articles have been published on how to control and prevent HFMD from the perspective of public health and statistical modeling. However, few works use fuzzy theory in building models to simulate HFMD dynamics. In this context, we examined an HFMD model with fuzzy parameters. A Non Standard Finite Difference (NSFD) scheme is developed to solve the model. The developed technique retains essential properties such as positivity and dynamic consistency. Numerical simulations are presented to support the analytical results. The convergence and consistency of the proposed method are also discussed. The proposed method converges unconditionally while the many classical methods in the literature do not possess this property. In this regard, our proposed method can be considered as a reliable tool for studying the dynamics of HFMD.