Abstract

New approaches are needed to develop more effective interventions to prevent long-term rejection of organ allografts. Computational biology provides a powerful tool to assess the large amount of complex data that is generated in longitudinal studies in this area. This manuscript outlines how our two groups are using mathematical modeling to analyze predictors of graft loss using both clinical and experimental data and how we plan to expand this approach to investigate specific mechanisms of chronic renal allograft injury.

Highlights

  • Improving long-term renal allograft survival is one of the major unmet needs in organ transplantation

  • The application of computational biology to transplantation seems to be a natural progression of both fields

  • The interaction between mathematicians and transplant biologists will likely lead to novel new interpretations of phenomena and new understanding of the mechanisms of chronic injury

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Summary

Introduction

Improving long-term renal allograft survival is one of the major unmet needs in organ transplantation. It is a sad fact that the rate of late graft loss (2–3%/year beyond the first year) appears to have changed little over the past two decades [1]. While some progress has been made in understanding the multiple causes of late renal allograft loss, our picture is still incomplete [2, 3]. The goal of this manuscript is to outline how our two groups have already started to use mathematical modeling to analyze predictors of graft loss using both conventional clinical data and more detailed histologic and genomic data. We outline how we plan to expand this approach going forward to investigate specific mechanisms of progressive injury

Complexity of Transplant Outcomes
Chronic renal allograft injury
Modeling Renal Allograft Loss Using Clinical Factors
Molecular Signatures and Other Biomarkers
Other Mathematical Model Issues
How to Optimize Mathematical Modeling in Transplantation?
Summary

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