Abstract
The reasonable risk evaluation in the long-term operation of urban subway systems is of importance to the public safety and maintenance work of the subway. At present, the risk assessment always depends on a specified single factor which might result in a biased risk result. In order to take more influential factors into account, the multiple indices system is developed for the total risk evaluation in this work. The proposed multiple indices system is established on the basis of the logical structure of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). It is based on the 7 selected factors in which the value of each factor is defined by its risk level and the corresponding weight is determined by the AHP calculation. The result obtained from the case study showed that the total risk levelgot from the proposed method is more reasonable than the traditional single index-based methods.
Highlights
As the world continues to urbanize, the number of cities becomes greater and greater especially in the lower-middleincome countries where the pace of urbanization is the fastest [1]
In most cases, the land space of a city is always limited, and there are no enough streets or roads which can be built arbitrarily to serve for the increasing amount of motor cars
The subway brings many benefits to our daily life, the operation of the subway system can still cause some risks to the environment and the Mathematical Problems in Engineering society [3]
Summary
As the world continues to urbanize, the number of cities becomes greater and greater especially in the lower-middleincome countries where the pace of urbanization is the fastest [1]. E subway operation-induced risks include but are not limited to the long-term ground settlement, deformation and failure of adjacent pipelines, and leakage of linings [6, 13, 16]. Regardless of what type of method is utilized, most of attentions have been paid to the estimation of the settlement and the final risk assessment largely depends on the comparison of calculated result and threshold from technical standards or designed requirements. In these threshold-based methods, the risk is usually determined by one specific factor, such as the deformation at specific monitoring point. We believe that the total risk is virtually not just limited to the value of subsidence at given points and related to the rate of settlement, the leakage state of tunnel lining, the disturbance of construction conducted in the vicinity areas, and so on. e proposed evaluation method is based on multiple indices representing the influential factors from different perspectives, and both the field investigation and expert consultation are employed to identify these indices. e weight of each factor involved in the proposed method is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) algorithm. e developed total risk evaluation method could help to comprehensively understand the risk during the operation of the subway and will provide a reasonable impact level of the total risk to aid the routine management and further maintenances of the subway in a cost-effective way
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