Comprehensive risk assessment and engineering application of mine water inrush based on normal cloud model and local variable weight

Abstract

ABSTRACTMine water inrush disaster occurs after the critical risk degree is reached under the non-linear dynamic coupling action of hydrogeological conditions, water hazard sources and excavation disturbance of artificial machinery. In this paper, the risk assessment unit is divided from the time and space dimensions, and the risk assessment evaluation index set is determined based on the “4M1E” management system, taking into account the fuzziness, dynamics, and balance of the evaluation indicators. This method changes the defect of the index weight in the previous comprehensive evaluation method as the constant weight. The game theory set model is selected to construct the initial weight vector of the evaluation index, and the final weight vector is determined by the local variable weight equalization function combined with the indicator state value. The normal cloud model is used to process the evaluation indicator status values, and the comprehensive evaluation matrix is determined to solve the ambiguity and randomness of the evaluation indicators. Finally, a comprehensive assessment model for mine water inrush disasters is formed, and a dynamic assessment framework is used to conduct dynamic risk assessment of mine water inrush. The research results show that the dynamic comprehensive evaluation model provides a theoretical basis for the early warning and prevention of mine water inrush disasters.