Comprehensive prediction method for failure rate of transmission line based on multi‐dimensional cloud model

Abstract

In allusion to the prediction for the failure rate of transmission lines under multiple external environmental factors, a comprehensive prediction method for the failure rate of transmission lines based on an multi-dimensional cloud model and Cholesky decomposition was proposed in this study. According to the historical data in meteorological early warning system and icing forecasting system, the mutual correlation degrees of these multiple external environmental factors are got by the grey relational algorithm and the comprehensive prediction model for the failure rate of transmission lines was established based on an multi-dimensional cloud model and Cholesky decomposition. In light with the external environmental factors in the next year, the failure rate of transmission lines was predicted by this proposed method. The test results based on actual data in Guizhou Power Grid show that this proposed comprehensive prediction method for the failure rate of transmission lines has high accuracy as the prediction error is about 2.05% and a much low computational burden as it only takes 30.25 s which is highly suitable for practical applications.