Comprehensive evaluation of parameter importance and optimization based on the integrated sensitivity analysis system: A case study of the BTOP model in the upper Min River Basin, China

Abstract

Parameter optimization is mandatory in many numerical modeling studies of hydrology sciences. However, optimizing all parameters (APs) is highly inefficient, including the equifinality phenomenon. This paper proposes an integrated sensitivity analysis system consisting of, multiple Global sensitivity analysis methods, Design of experiment algorithms, Indicators, and Sample size design Combinations (GDISCs), for screening the sensitive parameters (SPs) robustly and reducing parameter optimization burden efficaciously. In this study, four design of experiment (DoE) algorithms are applied to collect samples with varying sizes, and the corresponding three indicator values. We evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of one qualitative and two quantitative global sensitivity analysis (GSA) methods by identifying the appropriate DoE algorithm and the sufficient sample size. To apply the GDISCs, the Block-wise use of the TOPMODEL (BTOP) model is set up for the hydrological simulation in the upper Min River Basin, China. The results show that the GDISCs system robustly screens out three SPs of the BTOP model, and the DoE algorithms significantly impact the effectiveness and efficiency of the GSA methods. The SA performance with applying the modified Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE') as the indicator is more robust than the root mean squared error (RMSE) and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). Compared to the traditional APs optimization, the optimal values are identified quickly through almost 1/2 or even fewer model runs and duration for the SPs optimization, with a very close accuracy (the maximum NSE, KGE' and relative bias (RBias) differences are 0.137, 0.037 and 2.70%, and the minimum are 0.002, 0.001 and 0.20%). Optimizing SPs also has a noticeable improvement for the default parameter values, and the maximum differences of NSE, KGE' and RBias reach 0.764, 0.321, and −20.80%. In summary, the GDISCs system is especially applicable for obtaining the robust SA results to considerably improve model calibration efficiency and reduce model computational burden while ensuring satisfactory model simulation performance.