Comprehensive Correlation Analysis of Influencing Factors of Shale Gas Productivity Based on Adaptive Lasso Regression

Abstract

Abstract The shale gas demonstration area in the Sichuan Basin is currently at the stage of large-scale development. The main factors controlling the high production of shale gas wells has been a hot research topic in shale gas development. To obtain the main influencing factors of shale gas productivity, the typical case well area(Z 201)was selected as an example. 12 geological and engineering productivity variables of shale gas well were optimized based on Adaptive Lasso Regression method. In addition, optimization of multiple linear regression model and weight analysis of key parameters affecting productivity were conducted. Finally, the main controlling factors of productivity of shale gas well were identified, and the corresponding productivity prediction equation of shale gas single well was established. The results showed five independent variables (the drilling length of 1 sublayer, fracture density, thickness, brittleness and maximum principal stress) were optimized based on Adaptive Lasso regression, and the drilling length of 1 sublayer was the main factor controlling the high production of gas wells. In addition, the key to improving the shale gas well productivity were the natural brittle fracture development area and the low stress zone. Based on these study results, a production prediction equation for standardized testing of single well in this area was established, which may guide the drilling operation effectively and improve the production rate of shale gas wells. The research results have certain guidance and reference significance for shale gas production capacity construction and development. It can provide an important basis for optimizing shale gas favorable areas and evaluating single well productivity.