Abstract
AbstractThis paper builds a comprehensive supply chain model of the US broiler industry that accounts for corn and soybean meal, feed mills, breeders, hatcheries, grow-out farms, broiler processing, value-added processing, and international trade. The model is calibrated and simulated to analyze the effects of (1) corn and soybeans tariffs imposed by China and (2) change in the Canadian tariff-rate quota proposed under US–Mexico–Canada–Agreement. The first scenario indicates that feed price falls while supply increases, which decreases the production costs of breeders and grow-out farms. The second scenario shows that exports to Canada rise at the expense of exports to Mexico.
Highlights
The US broiler industry is highly integrated with individual companies controlling multiple segments of the supply chain
This paper builds a comprehensive supply chain model of the US broiler industry that accounts for corn and soybean meal, feed mills, breeders, hatcheries, grow-out farms, broiler processing, value-added processing, and international trade
This broiler supply chain model is calibrated based on parameters from the literature and US broiler data
Summary
The US broiler industry is highly integrated with individual companies controlling multiple segments of the supply chain. Chain, (3) calibrate the model to accurately represent the data, and (4) run two counterfactual analyses to study the impact of corn and soybean meal price shocks resulting from the US–China trade war and the USMCA broiler policy changes on the broiler industry. This study is the first to provide a comprehensive, quantitative analysis of the impacts of two important policy issues (US–China trade war and USMCA) on quantities, transfer prices, and market prices for each segment (corn and soybean meal, feed mills, breeders, hatcheries, grow-out farms, broiler processing, value-added production, domestic consumption, and trade) of the broiler supply chain. The supply chain model consists of corn and soybean meal, feed mills, breeders, hatcheries, growout farms, broiler processing, value-added production, and markets. Transfer prices between segments are determined by setting supply equal to the demand for feed, fertilized eggs, and DOCs
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