Comprehensive assessment of drought vulnerability and resilience over North and West Africa during 1980–2100

Abstract

The dynamic interplay between socioeconomic development and climate change has brought about significant changes in drought vulnerability within the African socioeconomic system. However, there is a prevailing lack of understanding about how these changes will manifest in an increasingly globalized economy under global warming. To address this knowledge gap, this study used various climatic, geographical, and socioeconomic data from historical periods and future projections to comprehensively assess the drought vulnerability in North and West Africa. Firstly, the drought vulnerability index (DVI) is calculated for every country to determine its accuracy and reliability based on the 26 elements and five components (i.e. health, energy and infrastructure, water resources, society, and economy). The datasets are collected for North and West African regions from the World Bank, AQUASTAT (global information system on water resources and agricultural water management), and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations during 1980–2020. The calculated DVI is then compared to earlier observations of drought consequences. Then, using historical variations and trends, a regression models are applied to the historical DVI time-series for each country and projected for the years 2020–2100 to produce three forecast scenarios for DVI in the future (high, medium, and low). The findings indicate that in North and West Africa, Tunisia, Egypt, and Algeria are the regions least affected by drought with a DVI value between 0.2 and 0.4, while Niger, Chad, and Mauritania are the most vulnerable regions with a DVI value between 0.6 and 1. Future DVI forecasts show that the gap between high - and low -vulnerable countries will enlarge, with most northern African regions becoming less drought-vulnerable and most western African regions showing increased drought vulnerability. The results of this study are primarily helpful in performing risk assessments, developing response plans or making adaptation decisions to help communities consider possible ways to address anticipated current and future threats resulting from drought and to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience of the system, coping with recurring drought in the coming decades.