Comprehensive analysis of the process of population ageing in Poland in the years 1950–2016

Ewa Roszkowska

doi:10.15290/oes.2018.02.92.16

Abstract

Aim – The main aim of the study is to determine the dynamics of the ageing process of the Polish population and to present a forecast of population ageing based on comprehensive analysis of the age structure of this population. The separated components of this structure are biological age groups: 0–14, 15–64, 65 years and more. The time period of the research comprises the years 1950–2016, while the population forecast by age is presented for 2020 and 2050. The elaboration includes data from GUS. Research methodology – In assessing the level of the ageing of Polish society there were used, among others, the old age index, old age coefficient, a measure of the similarity of structures, a measure of the structural change intensity, and the median age. Score – In the years 1950–2016 in Poland there were observed changes in the age structure of the population in age groups: 0–14 years old, 15–64 years old, 65 years old and more, including a steady trend in the percentage of people in the age group 0–14 years old and a steady upward trend in the percentage of people aged 65 and over, a strong upward trend in the old age index, and a strong tendency of increase in the post-working age dependency ratio. The Central Statistical Office’s (GUS) forecasts indicate that the population ageing measured by changes in the age structure of the population and the shifting of the median age which are taking place in Poland in a dynamic manner, will continue with increased intensity over the next decades. Originality/value – The added value of the work is the use of the similarity of structures and the intensity of structure changes, which together with an approach based on classical indicators allowed for a comprehensive analysis of the age structure of the Polish population in dynamic terms, determining the quantitative nature of changes in the age structure over time, the direction of these changes and their intensity. It was also pointed out that in light of the ongoing demographic transformations, the concept of silver economy understood as an economic system aimed at using the potential of the elderly and taking into account their needs is becoming a priority.

Highlights

A comprehensive analysis of the demographic situation requires taking into consideration the relation between participation in particular age groups: the population of children and teenagers, adult people, and elderly people
The elaboration presents a synthetic analysis of the transformations in the age structure of Poland’s population with division into three age groups: 0–14 years old, 15– years old, years old and over
In the years 1950–2016 there were observed transformations in the structure of population in accordance with the biological age characterized by varied tendency and intensification depending on age groups, an increase in the value of the median age, and the average life duration of the population

Summary

Introduction

Poland’s population in the years 1950–2016, forecast for the years 2020 and 2050, taking into consideration biological age groups and trend functions describing these changes with a determination coefficient, is presented in chart 1.

Objectives

Results

Conclusion