Abstract
Industrial restructuring is a significant measure for low-carbon transition. In principle, carbon emissions can be effectively reduced by limiting the output of high-emission sectors; however, the socio-economic effects of the sectors should also be considered. Moreover, owing to the limitations of the method or data, the interactions between households and production sectors have been neglected in the study of industrial restructuring, resulting in an incomplete and potentially biased understanding of the role of households. To fill this gap, we applied a semi-closed input–output model to identify key sectors by economic and emission linkages and measure the employment impacts (direct, indirect, and induced) of reduced carbon emissions. The empirical results for China in 2010–2018 showed that relatively small changes in key emission sectors would significantly affect the economic growth, and reduced carbon emissions reduction would generally lead to high job losses. Promoting labor-intensive sectors, particularly the service sector, is conducive to achieving a “multi-win” situation for economic development, carbon emission reductions, and stable employment. Furthermore, our results highlight the significance of households: expanding consumption and increasing household income can bring multiple benefits, such as economic growth, job creation, and low carbon emissions. These findings can provide useful information for identifying the optimized path of restructuring and helping achieve the sustainable development of the environment, economy, and society.
Highlights
With the rapid development of the world economy, energy supply and environmental problems have become increasingly severe (IPCC 2013; Quadrelli and Peterson 2007)
This paper aims to provide an input–output based framework to identify the direction of industrial restructuring for a low-carbon transition by economic and emission linkage analysis and to quantify the full scope of the employment impacts of carbon emissions reduction
Based on the semi-closed input–output model with partially endogenized consumption, this study first identified key sectors in terms of the economic and carbon emissions linkages; quantified the direct, indirect, and induced employment multipliers and further measured the job losses per carbon emissions reduction; and, industrial policy implications were presented based on the comprehensive assessments of the carbon emissions reductions, economic growth, and employment impacts
Summary
With the rapid development of the world economy, energy supply and environmental problems have become increasingly severe (IPCC 2013; Quadrelli and Peterson 2007). The transition to a low-carbon economy has become a basic strategy for countries worldwide to help address climate change, maintain energy security, and reduce environmental pollution (de Miguel et al 2019). Industrial restructuring is a phenomenon that adjusts the proportions of various sectors to meet one or more target (Mi et al 2015). In practice, reducing emissions by output restriction will influence the economic income of some sectors and may hinder. Economic and emission performance should be evaluated jointly when discussing the roles of various sectors in a country (Chang 2015). Employment impacts are one of the most important social impacts associated with industrial restructuring, as well as one of the most crucial concerns for formulating policies. Protecting the environment, promoting the economy, and maintaining social stability are three important dimensions for sustainable development. Achieving a multi-win situation for the environment, economy, and society has aroused widespread attention from all sectors of society and is the main motivation for conducting this study
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