Compound Stochastic Seismic Vulnerability Analysis and Seismic Risk Evaluation for Super Large Cable-Stayed Bridge

Abstract

Previous seismic disasters indicate bridge structures are the most vulnerable component of the road transportation system in seism, such as the Haiti earthquake and Tohoku earthquake. Bitter lesson of bridge damage leads to the development of seismic analysis theories for bridge such as seismic vulnerability analysis. Generally, seismic vulnerability is the probability of different damage in different seismic levels, which combines the intensity measure of seism with damage index for bridge structure. Methods of seismic vulnerability analysis include expert vulnerability analysis, experience vulnerability analysis and theory vulnerability analysis. Nevertheless, only seismic randomness has been taken into account in most seismic vulnerability analysis (e.g. Shinozuka et al. 2000; Kiremidjian et al. 1997; Basoz et al. 1997; Yamazaki et al. 2000). Apart from seismic randomness, bridge structure parameters are also stochastic, such as material properties, bridge geometry, boundary condition and so on, which cause the randomness of structure seismic response. Therefore, seismic vulnerability for bridge structure should be determined by both the randomness of seism and that of structure parameters. Due to the complexity of bridge structure system, it is very difficult to gain the analytic solution of seismic response for stochastic structure. Since the stochastic numerical simulation is time consuming and inefficient, this method is suspended at the threshold of thought. Now, based on traditional seismic vulnerability analysis method, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Monte Carlo (MC) technologies combining with Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) and PUSHOVER method, Compound Stochastic Seismic Vulnerability Analysis (CSSVA) method is developed to take both randomness of material and that of seism into account from the point of total probability, which not only gives full play to the ANN, MC, IDA and PUSHOVER,but also increases the the efficiency of analysis greatly (Feng Qing-hai 2009). Generally, the damage of bridge might lead to more serious results and secondary damage than that of road, and the seismic risk level of bridge determines that of the whole road transportation system. Due to the above mentioned reasons, more and more scholars pay attention to the bridge seismic risk evaluation.