Compound dry and hot events over major river basins of the world from 1921 to 2020

Abstract

Compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) are among the most destructive compound extremes. Under global warming, changes in precipitation, temperature and their dependence make profound contributions to CDHEs. In this paper, the contributions of these three factors are explicitly quantified based on a novel mathematical method. Specifically, time series of precipitation and temperature are employed to identify CDHEs and then changes of CDHEs are attributed by using the partial derivatives-based sensitivity analysis. Based on the Climatic Research Unit Time-Series (CRU TS), a case study of CDHEs is devised for the major river basins (MRBs) of the world. The results highlight that from the period 1921-1970 to the period 1971-2020, CDHEs did occur more frequently across most MRBs. The temperature tended to make the largest contribution, followed by precipitation and the dependence between precipitation and temperature. In Africa, South America and Western Europe, the rising temperature is generally the dominant factor for increases of heatwaves that contribute to CDHEs. In Asia, increases of droughts along with increases of heatwaves raise the risk of CDHEs. For MRBs with moderate increases in temperature, increasing precipitation is shown to mitigate or even offset the risks of CDHEs. In the meantime, the increasing dependence is observed to reduce the frequency of CDHEs in the Huai He and the Mississippi even though therein temperature is increasing. Overall, the attributing results of CDHEs from 1921 to 2020 can serve as a reference for the preparation and mitigation of CDHEs for MRBs across the world.