Compound drought and heatwave events in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea region

Abstract

Droughts and heatwaves are natural phenomena that can cause severe damage to the economy, infrastructure, human health, and agriculture, among others. However, in recent years, it has been noted that their combined effect, known as compound drought and heatwave events (CDHE), often results in even greater harm. The main aim of this study was to identify CDHEs in this region during summers from 1950 to 2022 and assess the frequency and intensity of these events. To this end, the periods of droughts and heatwaves that occurred between 1950 and 2022 were determined, and the recurrence, extent, and intensity of these phenomena were evaluated. In this study, 1-month Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) values calculated for each summer day were used to identify droughts, while heatwaves were defined as a period of five or more consecutive days when the daily maximum air temperature (Tmax) was higher than the 90th percentile of Tmax. Precipitation and Tmax data (with a spatial resolution 0.25° x 0.25°) were obtained from the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecast ERA-5 reanalysis dataset. The study showed that in most of the eastern part of the Baltic Sea region, the number of drought days had decreased from 1950 to 2022, while the number of heatwave days had increased significantly. In total, ten CDHEs were identified during the summers of 1950–2022. Eight of these events were recorded in 1994 or later. However, a statistically significant increase of CDHEs was found only in a small part of the study area.