Composition of feature selection techniques for improving the global horizontal irradiance estimation via machine learning models

Abstract

The rise in photovoltaic capacity installed globally and the sporadic nature of solar resources underline the significance of solar radiation forecasting for grid integration. The choice of relevant climatic variables for estimating global horizontal irradiance (GHI) is crucial because it influences estimation accuracy. To keep this in mind, different feature selection techniques such as filter, wrapper, and embedded are computed and compared to identify a pertinent input variable for the prediction of GHI. In order to reduce the dimensionality of the input features, it is pertinent to remove unnecessary variables using feature selection techniques. This comprehensive study explores the use of tree-based ensemble machine learning (ML) models in the modeling of global solar radiation. Eighteen statistical and ML regressor algorithms, along with ten feature selection methods are evaluated based on statistical comparisons of their computational effectiveness and estimation errors. The lowest mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.9938 and 2.5327 achieved by the extra-tree regressor algorithm reveals that it outperforms the other models on the test dataset. The integration of feature selection techniques improves predictive capabilities, reducing MAE and RMSE by 13.15% and 5.24%, respectively, for the Mutual Information method. This study also identifies influential features critical to accurate GHI estimation, such as solar zenith angle, diffuse horizontal irradiance, and direct normal irradiance, which provide valuable insights into the dynamics governing solar radiation estimation.