Components of the Vote for Non-Independence Parties: Regional Elections in Catalonia 2017

Alfonso A López,Nieves Lagares,Elba Maneiro

doi:10.4236/ojps.2020.103024

Abstract

The lengthy political crisis in Catalonia highlights the incapacity of the Spanish Government and the Generalitat of Catalonia to find a political solution to this conflict. Facing a situation of this exceptionality and so prolonged in time, an innumerable number of articles and research papers have been published from Political Science. However, very few authors have decided to tackle the influence of emotions on the voting decisions of the Catalans; and even fewer, through a quantitative analysis. In this artcile, we decided to analyse the elements that compose the vote for the main non-independence political parties (PSC and C’s) in the 2017 Catalan elections, including components of an emotional nature. To this end, we will use the survey carried out by the Equipo de Investigaciones Políticas to develop two structural equation models (SEM), one for each of these parties, in which we will incorporate emotions along with other “classic” voting variables.

Highlights

In the last few years, the debate about the situation in Catalonia has been mimicked by the struggle between two antagonistic positions: the independence of Catalonia and the immobility of the Spanish government
To explore some of these concerns, we have decided to focus on the results obtained by the main political parties that represent the non-independence option in Catalonia, Ciutadans de Catalunya (C’s) and the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC), and which factors have influenced the vote for these political groups in the past regional elections of 2017
This general objective can be broken down into several specific objectives: 1) Which is the specific weight that the emotional component has had in the voting decision; 2) To which extent the procés has been a vertebral element of said decision; 3) Which are the effects that the initiatives carried out by the Spanish Government after the unilateral declaration of independence by the Catalan Parliament have had on the voting behaviour of the non-independence parties; and 4) We may or may not speak of a homogeneous whole as far as the definition of the vote for the non-independence parties is concerned, or they move on the basis of different decision elements

Summary

Introduction

In the last few years, the debate about the situation in Catalonia has been mimicked by the struggle between two antagonistic positions: the independence of Catalonia and the immobility of the Spanish government. In this way, the discussion has become increasingly sterile, with each of these positions becoming entrenched in their polarised arguments while other alternative options are being ignored. It is interesting to reflect on how it is possible that these different alternatives around the political-territorial design have been left in the background of the more mediatic debate; especially taking into account that the different surveys carried out in Catalonia indicate that the Catalan citizenship does not indicate as its ideal option either of these two options (central state or independence) and would prefer to opt for other political-territorial options. To explore some of these concerns, we have decided to focus on the results obtained by the main political parties that represent the non-independence option in Catalonia, Ciutadans de Catalunya (C’s) and the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC), and which factors have influenced the vote for these political groups in the past regional elections of 2017

Objectives

Findings

Discussion

Conclusion