Component reliability parameters estimation considering weather factors

Abstract

In order to study influence of power system reliability parameters under the complex weather, this paper presents a component reliability parameter estimation method based on the one directional S-rough law and F-decomposition law. The S-rough rule handles the failure rate and the uncertain weather conditions. According to this, it establishes reliable parameter estimation model. Then the power system reliability evaluation adds the F-decomposition law analysis to form the interfere metrics and analyzes influence of component reliability parameters under different weather combinations. In the numerical example verification, the results show that the proposed model can predict the transmission line failure rate, and reveals the influence regularity of component reliability parameter. Based on the objective data (climate in many years), the proposed method can eliminate the influence of subjective factor. Evaluation results are more objective, and provide important information for the power system reliability evaluation.