Complexity and Disaster Forensics: Paradigms, Models and Approaches for Natural Hazards Management in the Pacific Island Region

Abstract

“Complexity and Disaster Forensics: New Paradigms, Models and Approaches for Natural Hazards Management in the Pacific Islands Region” assesses and applies complex systems theory, modeling and analysis to disaster forensics policy and research. To better understand the root cause and complex causality of disasters, complex systems theory, with roots in the fields of statistical physics, information theory, and non-linear dynamics, and systems analysis, is applied to help communities and nations achieve important social development goals, reduce institutional brittleness and increase disaster resilience by promoting positive transformations in the co-evolving and mutually dependent human-environmental condition, and by capitalizing on opportunities provided by human creativity, diplomatic openings, technologic capacities and environmental change. The case studies, investigations and models outlined in this chapter collectively demonstrate the quality, breadth and depth of complex systems and disaster forensics methodologies. Game-theoretic (“Small World”) decision analyses, “Large world” (complex systems) models of mutually interactive game design are put forth to capture the complexity of climate related disasters and to reduce the threat of climate refugees in the Pacific Island region. The resulting risk management lessons learned were applied to communities in the Pacific Island of Vanuatu, the most natural disaster prone country in the world.