Complexity and chaotic behavior of the U.S. Rivers and estimation of their prediction horizon

Abstract

A streamflow time series encompasses a large amount of hidden information and reliable prediction of its behavior in the future remains a challenge. It seems that the use of information measures can significantly contribute to determining the time horizon of rivers and improving predictability. Using the Kolmogorov complexity (KC) and its derivatives (KC spectrum and its highest value), and Lyapunov exponent (LE), it has previously been shown that the degree of streamflow predictability depends on human activities, environmental factors, and natural characteristics. This paper applied the KC and LE measures to investigate the randomness and chaotic behavior of monthly streamflow of 1879 rivers from the United States for a period of 1950–2015 and evaluated their time horizons via the Lyapunov and Kolmogorov time (LT and KT, respectively).