Complex Systems Track

There are five mini-tracks in this Track. One minitrack consisting of eight papers in two sessions focuses on Robust and Resilient Critical Infrastructure Systems such as transportation systems, communication networks, and electric power grids. These systems contain interactive subsystems of continuous-time dynamics, discrete-time events, continuous-time controllers, and discrete-time event controllers. Such systems are characterized by complex nonlinear behavior, and experience uncertainty both in their internal description and in external disturbances/environments. The design, analysis and survivability of such infrastructures present many analytical and computational challenges. The Mini-track on “Information Management and Visualization” seeks to explore techniques for managing and visualizing large-scale models that may be distributed across multiple operating authorities. Data issues are prominently featured in this minitrack. Other papers cover shipboard power systems and ways to visualize market prices in network applications are scheduled for presentation. Another Minitrack focuses on topics related to the ability of complex systems such as power systems to survive disturbances with minimal impact on performance. This Minitrack in entitled “Security and Reliability”. Specific topics to be presented are steady-state and dynamic security assessment where the impacts of pre-specified contingencies are analyzed and Available Transfer Capability (ATC) which quantifies the ability of the interconnected system to accept increases in power transfers. Many large complex systems exhibit evidence of self-organized criticality. Issues such as the role of network size and topology along with the influence of network loading and operation on selforganized criticality are of interest. Evidence that large network disturbances are of a selforganized type and mechanisms of self-organized behavior in large networks are to be presented. Finally, there are two sessions in the mini-track on Electricity Markets and Regulation. The aim of this mini-track is to explore the ability of commercial trading models to effectively represent the complex physical behavior of an electricity industry, an issue that is critical to the success of electricity industry restructuring. Important aspects of this issue include the design of efficient spot markets and ancillary service markets, and mechanisms to incorporate network effects in electricity trading models. Papers will be presented that address these and other aspects of this important problem.

This is the first year for this minitrack that evolved from the Restructuring the Electric Power Industry minitrack of the Emerging Technologies Track of previous years. This minitrack is now part of the new Complex Systems Track. This minitrack focuses on topics related to the ability of complex systems such as power systems to survive disturbances with minimal impact on performance. Specific topics include: steady-state and dynamic security assessment where the impacts of pre-specified contingencies are analyzed; Available Transfer Capability (ATC) which quantifies the ability of the interconnected system to accept increases in power transfers; and related technologies. This year’s papers focus on how security and reliability of electric power systems are affected by changes that continue to emerge from the industry restructuring. The topics presented in these papers are: a. The impact of distributed generation on system voltage stability. b. The definition of Available Transfer Capability as an interval based on alternative dispatch options. c. Multi-area probabilistic reliability assessment. d. Network control as a distributed, dynamic game. e. The impact of modeling errors on state estimation and system operation. f. Evaluation of new on-line Automatic Generation Control techniques. g. Extended factor for linear contingency analysis. Collectively, these papers offer new ideas for dealing with the challenges of complex power systems and the demands of a competitive environment.

<i>Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems.</i> H. Sayama (Ed.). (2015, Open SUNY Textbooks). Free open access PDF, 498 pp. ISBN 978-1-942341-06-2 (deluxe color edition). ISBN 978-1-942341-08-6 (print edition). ISBN 978-1-942341-09-3 (ebook).

In popular dialogues, describing a system as "complex" is often the point of resignation, inferring that the system cannot be sufficiently described, predicted nor managed. Transport networks, management infrastructure and supply chain logistics are all often described in this way. Academic dialogues have begun to explore the collective behaviors of complex systems to define a complex system specifically as an adaptive one; i.e. a system that demonstrates 'self organising' principles and 'emergent' properties. Based upon the key principles of interaction and emergence in relation to adaptive and self organising systems in cultural artifacts and processes, this paper will argue that complex systems are cultural systems. By introducing generic principles of complex systems, and looking at the exploration of such principles in art, design and media research, this paper argues that a science of cultural systems as part of complex systems theory is the post modern science for the digital age. Furthermore, that such a science was predicated by post structuralism and has been manifest in art, design and media practice since the late 1960s.

To discuss multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) from a complex systems' theory perspective and to delineate a conceptual framework for the development and care of MODS. MODS is an intricate and devastating manifestation of critical illness characterized by widespread aberrant molecular, cellular and systemic responses. Narrative literature review (MEDLINE, CINAHL databases) and knowledge synthesis with the theoretical assertions of chaos and complex systems' theory. Cellular and systemic response paradoxes in MODS (including cellular hypoxia, cell death and signalling) are reviewed. The diseased person is depicted as a complex adaptive system. The relevancy of some of the principles of complex chaotic systems' theory to the proposed model is illustrated, including sensitive dependence on initial conditions, emergence, attractors, self-organization, self-organized criticality and emerging order. The transition from life-supporting to death-related organismic responses is illustrated as a critical event in MODS and care implications are drawn. Patient responses in MODS appear to conform to the principles of chaotic systems. Death is illustrated not as a consequence of homeostatic failure but as a 'deliberate' self-organized phenomenon entailing multiple dynamically evolving mechanisms. Some of the principles of chaotic complex systems may need to be taken into account to advance care in MODS. An alternative theoretical perspective may support nurses to conceptualize both MODS and their role in a way that will help them to cope better with this devastating syndrome and develop practice.

In practical power markets, Available Transfer Capability (ATC) is crucial for transmission customers, system operators and power marketers to make a good choice. It is an indication of the expected transfer capability remaining on the transmission network. In order to assure the secure, economic, stable and reliable operation of power systems, the assessment of ATC should be carried out instantly. Most of the existing ATC calculation are mainly focused on AC power systems and based on deterministic techniques. As high performance computing has been extensively used in scientific computation and technology, less work has been done on evaluation of ATC by using parallel algorithm. This paper is dealing with the evaluation of ATC by stochastic parallel algorithm in an AC power system. Due to the stochastic nature of power system behaviors, it is important to assess ATC from a statistical and risk analysis point of view. Considering the dynamics, time-varying and uncertainties of power systems, several statistical indices is presented to evaluate ATC. They are calculated based on Monte Carlo simulation and parallel computing. The system operation states can be simulated by Monte Carlo method, and the parallel algorithm based on MATPOWER (A MATLAB™ Power System Simulation Package) is developed. Case study with an IEEE 30-bus power system is used to verify the presented approach. Five-number summary and other statistical indices of ATC are calculated. The results show that the proposed method can elapse shorter computation time and it is more effective and practical. Some new attractive issues are suggested at the end.

We give an overview of a complex systems approach to large blackouts of electric power transmission systems caused by cascading failure. Instead of looking at the details of particular blackouts, we study the statistics and dynamics of series of blackouts with approximate global models. Blackout data from several countries suggest that the frequency of large blackouts is governed by a power law. The power law makes the risk of large blackouts consequential and is consistent with the power system being a complex system designed and operated near a critical point. Power system overall loading or stress relative to operating limits is a key factor affecting the risk of cascading failure. Power system blackout models and abstract models of cascading failure show critical points with power law behavior as load is increased. To explain why the power system is operated near these critical points and inspired by concepts from self-organized criticality, we suggest that power system operating margins evolve slowly to near a critical point and confirm this idea using a power system model. The slow evolution of the power system is driven by a steady increase in electric loading, economic pressures to maximize the use of the grid, and the engineering responses to blackouts that upgrade the system. Mitigation of blackout risk should account for dynamical effects in complex self-organized critical systems. For example, some methods of suppressing small blackouts could ultimately increase the risk of large blackouts.

Genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics have all vastly advanced our understanding of human biology and disease. But the functioning of even a simple system such as a single yeast cell or bacterium is much more complicated than the sum of its genes or proteins or metabolites; it’s the activity of all those components and their relationships to one another that add up to a living organism. Recognizing that complexity, the emerging field of systems biology attempts to harness the power of mathematics, engineering, and computer science to analyze and integrate data from all the “omics” and ultimately create working models of entire biological systems. “Traditionally, scientists—toxicologists included—have relied on a reductionist approach to biology,” says William Suk, director of the NIEHS Center for Risk and Integrated Sciences. Even now, many studies examine complex systems by looking at cellular components in isolation. For instance, a common experiment involves using DNA microarrays to observe the effect of a chemical exposure on thousands of genes at once. This technique can quickly tell a scientist which genes may be vulnerable to that exposure. But a systems biology approach would attempt to model not only the chemical’s effect on gene expression but also how that expression will affect protein function, and in turn how the exposure will affect cell signaling. “There’s nothing wrong with what we’ve been doing,” Suk says. “But systems biology is going to take it to another level.”

The Complexity of the Homeopathic Healing Response Part 2: The Role of the Homeopathic Simillimum as a Complex System in Initiating Recovery from Disease.

The aim of this paper is to analyse the results of research carried out in the railway, mining, and electric power systems in Serbia and form a new integral control model. The three methodological procedures are applied. First, analytical-synthetic methodological approach breaks down complex technical system into three parts: bio-cybernetic system, "operator"; technical system, "technology"; and additional system, "working environment." Second, network planning method is used to analyse time, according to the critical path method. Third, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process determines the key research factors. General results of research are new integral control model, and new research areas and activities. The most prominent factors are: in "bio-cybernetic system"--operator's arm reach, body postures and movement sequences, operator's work, occurrence of stress, and occurrence of fatigue; in "technical system"--location and dimension of control desk, display panel, video display terminal, symbols on video display terminal, colours in control centres, and suitability of the keyboards; and in "supporting system"--illumination in control centres and relative humidity. Based on the analysis of factors and synthesis of results, the following recommendation are proposed: new control desk design; new display panel design; new design of the main and local lighting; new illumination and contrast characteristics, and environmental impact assessment. For research on a variety of complex technical systems, new integral control model can be applied, with corresponding extensions.

A method has been proposed for the structural functional-cost modeling of a complex hierarchical system. The initial data for carrying out calculations directly based on the functional-cost model have been determined. We have proposed and substantiated the cost description of a complex system and its components by using analytical approximating dependences. An example of the functional-cost algorithm has been given that employs a Lagrange multiplier method for complex systems with a serial combination of its separate parts. The solution to the example is the distribution among the desired probabilities of the effective operation of individual parts in terms of the minimum cost. Deriving such distribution does not require absolute values of the cost of both parts and the entire system. The issues addressed in the cost rationalization include the following: ensuring the predefined level of the functional perfection of a system at its minimum cost; determining the minimum required level of functional excellence in a single link at the known levels of functional excellence of the system and all other links except the one under investigation; determining the required number of parallel operating links for the same purpose; clarification of the required level of the functional perfection of links (information sensors, information processing links, communication channels) that have parallel communication; the structural improvement of a complex system by selecting a link within the system for which the improvement of functional perfection can be realized at minimum cost. We have proposed rules for the structural rationalization of a complex system. The first of them is the rule of the rational structural structure of a complex system. That makes it possible to receive a sufficient benefit from the complex system at minimum cost. The second rule is the expediency of complicating a complex system. According to it, complicating a complex system is advisable only if it improves the functional perfection of the entire complex system. The third rule, a rule of the proper structure, shows that there are no unnecessary links in the complex system, that is, those links that do not perform any activities that are not functionally required by a given system

Available transfer capability (ATC) is defined as a measure of the system's capability for transfers of power for further commercial activity, over and above already committed uses. In practical power markets, ATC can provide important information for transmission customers, system operators and power marketers. The assessment of ATC should be carried out to assure the secure, economic, stable and reliable operation of power systems. Most of the existing ATC calculation are mainly focused on AC power system and based on deterministic techniques. As high voltage direct current (HVDC) power distribution systems have been extensively used in modem transmission network, less work has been done on evaluation of ATC in AC-DC hybrid power system. This paper is dealing with the evaluation of ATC for the integration of HVDC link with an AC power system. The mathematical model of ATC for AC-DC hybrid power system is proposed. Due to the stochastic nature of power system behaviors, it is important to assess ATC from a statistical and risk analysis point of view. Considering the dynamics, time-varying and uncertainties of hybrid power systems, several statistical indices are presented to evaluate ATC and they are calculated based on Monte Carlo simulation. States of system operation can be simulated, and the algorithm based on MATPOWER (A MATLAB™ Power System Simulation Package) is developed in the environment of MATLAB 7.5. Case study with a modified IEEE 30-bus AC-DC hybrid power system is used to verify the presented approach. Sequential solution method is employed to deal with the AC-DC power flow. Five-number summary and other statistical indices of ATC are calculated. The results show that the proposed method is effective and practical. The research achievements are undergoing to transfer to the application in other hybrid power systems with different control style, and some new problems are suggested at the end of paper.

The monograph reveals the basics of complexity theory and methods for assessing complexity. The concept of complexity consideration is based on the analysis of complexity as a common attribute in processes and systems. The monograph describes the main methods for assessing different types of complexity. The concept of considering complexity in this monograph is also based on the fact that complexity is a comparative characteristic. It is given on a relative scale of difficulty. Therefore, complexity must be defined on a relative scale of “simplicity-complexity.” This concept motivates the consideration and analysis of the concept of “simplicity” as a complement to the concept of “complexity”. These concepts set the scale of complexity. The monograph provides a comparative analysis of the related concepts of simplicity and complexity. Three methods for assessing complexity are described: expert assessment of complexity, assessment of complexity using mathematical metrics, comparative assessment of complexity based on the theory of comparative analysis. The monograph contains a taxonomy of the main types of complexity. The content of the main types of complexity is revealed in detail: descriptive complexity, system complexity, modeling complexity, computational complexity. algorithmic complexity, deterministic complexity. Specific cognitive difficulties are described in detail. For cognitive complexity, special assessment methods are used. An interpretation of the concept of cognitive filter is given. Complexity is associated with the concept of complex systems. In most monographs on complex systems, the complexity aspect has not been considered or is viewed in a simplified manner. This monograph examines complexity as a characteristic of complex systems and the basis for their classification. Emergence is described as a characteristic of the complexity of systems and complex processes. The monograph contains a taxonomy of complex systems with characteristics of the complexity of different systems. Complex data systems have been explored. An analysis of organizational complex systems is given. Various types of complex ergatic systems have been described. An analysis of complex technical systems is given. Self-developing complex systems are described. autopoiesis of a complex organizational and technical system has been studied as a principle of systems development. Cyber-physical systems are described as an example of the development of complex systems. The monograph is intended for specialists in the field of computer science, systems analysis, artificial intelligence and philosophy of information.

This minitrack focuses on topics related to the monitoring and control of complex systems such as power systems to ensure that disturbances have a minimal impact on performance. Specific topics include: Steady-State and Dynamic Security Assessment, Available Transfer Capability (ATC), State Estimation, Security-Constrained Optimal Power Flow, Sensor Applications, Large-Scale Real-Time Control, and related technologies. The sessions in this minitrack are typically organized around current research areas in electric power systems monitoring and control. This year's themes include Infrastructure and Architecture, and Monitoring and Control.

This minitrack focuses on topics related to the monitoring and control of complex systems such as power systems to ensure that disturbances have a minimal impact on performance. Specific topics include: steady-state and dynamic security assessment where the impacts of pre-specified contingencies are analyzed; Available Transfer Capability (ATC) which quantifies the ability of the interconnected system to accept increases in power transfers; widearea measurement technologies, state estimation, and the investigation of new realtime control strategies.