Complex oscillatory dynamics in a three-timescale El Niño Southern Oscillation model

Abstract

We study the three-timescale dynamics of a model that describes the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which was proposed in Roberts et al. (2016). While ENSO phenomena are inherently characterised by the presence of multiple distinct timescales, the above model has previously been studied in a two-timescale context only. Here, we uncover the geometric mechanisms that are responsible for complex oscillatory dynamics in a three-timescale regime, and we demonstrate that the model exhibits a variety of qualitatively different behaviours in that regime, such as mixed-mode oscillation (MMO) with “plateaus” – trajectories where epochs of quiescence alternate with dramatic excursions – and relaxation oscillation. The latter, although emergent also in the two-timescale context in appropriate parameter regimes, had not been documented previously for this particular model. Moreover, we show that these mechanisms are relevant to models from other fields of ecological and population dynamics, as the underlying geometry is similar to the unfolding of Rosenzweig–MacArthur-type models in three dimensions.