Complex Oscillatory Dynamics in a Three-Timescale El Ni\~No Southern Oscillation Model

Abstract

We study the three-timescale dynamics of a model that describes the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which was proposed in [A. Roberts, J. Guckenheimer, E. Widiasih, A. Timmermann, and C. K. Jones, Mixed-mode oscillations of El Ni\~no--Southern Oscillation, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73 (2016), pp. 1755--1766]. While ENSO phenomena are inherently characterised by the presence of multiple distinct timescales, the above model has previously been studied in a two-timescale context only. Here, we uncover the geometric mechanisms that are responsible for complex oscillatory dynamics in a three-timescale regime, and we demonstrate that the system exhibits a variety of qualitatively different behaviours, such as mixed-mode oscillation (MMO) with ``plateaus" -- trajectories where epochs of quiescence alternate with dramatic excursions -- and relaxation oscillation. The latter, although emergent also in the two-timescale context in appropriate parameter regimes, had not been documented previously. Moreover, we show that these mechanisms are relevant to models from other fields of ecological and population dynamics, as the underlying geometry is similar to the unfolding of Rosenzweig--MacArthur-type models in three dimensions.