Complex network-based risk analysis for maritime heavy casualties in China during 2012–2021

Abstract

A collection of accident investigation reports for the 21 maritime heavy casualties that occurred in China during 2012–2021 is studied statistically and analytically in the present study. The basic accident factors are first extracted from these investigation reports to present the distribution features of these heavy casualties. Then, the accident factors in terms of crew, environment, ship equipment and management in each individual investigation report are logically linked to develop a causative chain. As a result, 21 chains developed from the 21 accident investigation reports are interweaved into a complex network by sharing the same factors. The accident factors involved in the complex network are quantitatively assessed in terms of activeness, connection strength and criticality based on the network topology parameters and the improved K-shell decomposition algorithm. The topology of the developed complex network implies that the occurrence of maritime heavy casualties is under control, and the results show that the seaworthiness of crew, ship equipment and cargo is critical to maintain safe operation on board; meanwhile, supervising ship operators and managers to ensure that they fulfil their responsibility is an effective way to maintain the maritime safety level.